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Recently I have noticed a small problem going on on the LTC blockchain: the second largest pool of LTC, Antpool (hashrate currently 17%), likes to mine empty blocks (blocks that do not carry user transactions, except for the 25 LTC block reward transaction).

As of this morning, Antpool mines the most empty blocks in the last 500 blocks (yellow empty, green non-empty), more than all other miners' empty blocks combined. In fact, Antpool's empty blocks are as many as BW.com's (3rd in hashrate) total blocks mined. This phenomena, where Antpool dominates in absolute count of empty blocks and the ratio of empty/non-empty blocks has been going on for a while. And I think this is something the community should know and be aware of.

You may ask, the blocks are not full, if Antpool mines an empty block, there is always the next one, a user just wait 2.5 min. So what is the big deal? Well, I believe Antpool mines empty blocks (and get 25 LTC reward), to position itself to find the next block more likely. And it becomes a problem, when they consecutively mine empty blocks. Just imagine having to wait 20 mins after you send your emergency transaction at 02:17, right after F2Pool mines a block!

What Antpool does is, in my opinion, contrary to Litecoin founder Charlie's ideal of 2.5 min / block. It's not a big problem, but unfortunately, the economic incentive is set up in a way that for now, Antpool might earn more cash by mining empty blocks. Until the next halvening happens, this trend will likely continue.

Some plots above were generated by a Matlab function I wrote to help monitor block status. You can view it here. It should give a whole set of plots like this. Special thanks to Jeremy Barry for his GetTable function and Litecoinpool.org for being the data source.

LTC tip jar: LgBxjtvADFmffoWB6QK8TYdaT6gFmZBc3F

Long live decentralization, long live Litecoin.

Did some analysis on BTC ASIC mining profitability. Sharing in hope of any feedback.

First of all calculating mining profitability is hard because in order to do it we need to model:

Step 1: Data

I grabbed some historical difficulty data from

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Step 2: Modeling difficulty

Using the historical data and Matlab fit fitting an exponential model to the historical data.

Yielding this:

http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#0

Difficulty on the y axis and x axis is time ending at today.

Looks like the exponential model was quite successful at explaining the data point. The 95% confidence boundaries were quite tight as well.

http://imgur.com/TZHIkrC

Step 3: Extrapolation

Using the model I then extrapolated one year into the future.

http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#1

Switched to Log diagram to see anything. So this is one year forward from today.

As I understand it the number of days between each change in difficulty is not constant. Because difficulty change every 2016 blocks and how many days that take depend on the total pool hash rate during that time.

This then become a problem since in reality difficulty does not change every day but every 11th day or so.

Thus I decided to create a distribution of days on a difficulty and Monte Carlo simulate by drawing random paths from that distribution.

The result was quite stable for each path. This is an example of one path.

http://imgur.com/3wAkd6X

This example is modeled for a 30 GHash/s machine. As you can see most of the BTC is mined the first 200 days or so.

Finally I just assumed that the BTCUSD price for the next year will be 830. The result was that if you for example can get your hands on a 3 THash/s KNC miner today and you don't take energy costs into account you would on average yield 36 042 USD and it costs 10 000 USD. However if you go for a 36 GHash/s Cube and let it mine for a year you will make 433 USD and they retails around 1 000 USD.

Next I will look at iterating to where we break even atm on a price / Hash.

Then try and see if this can be used for altcoin mining. For example see how far we have come in the exponential growth face of capacity etc.

submitted by Stimzz to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]
First of all calculating mining profitability is hard because in order to do it we need to model:

- Difficulty
- BTCUSD price (or whatever currency pair).

Step 1: Data

I grabbed some historical difficulty data from

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Step 2: Modeling difficulty

Using the historical data and Matlab fit fitting an exponential model to the historical data.

Yielding this:

http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#0

Difficulty on the y axis and x axis is time ending at today.

Looks like the exponential model was quite successful at explaining the data point. The 95% confidence boundaries were quite tight as well.

http://imgur.com/TZHIkrC

Step 3: Extrapolation

Using the model I then extrapolated one year into the future.

http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#1

Switched to Log diagram to see anything. So this is one year forward from today.

As I understand it the number of days between each change in difficulty is not constant. Because difficulty change every 2016 blocks and how many days that take depend on the total pool hash rate during that time.

This then become a problem since in reality difficulty does not change every day but every 11th day or so.

Thus I decided to create a distribution of days on a difficulty and Monte Carlo simulate by drawing random paths from that distribution.

The result was quite stable for each path. This is an example of one path.

http://imgur.com/3wAkd6X

This example is modeled for a 30 GHash/s machine. As you can see most of the BTC is mined the first 200 days or so.

Finally I just assumed that the BTCUSD price for the next year will be 830. The result was that if you for example can get your hands on a 3 THash/s KNC miner today and you don't take energy costs into account you would on average yield 36 042 USD and it costs 10 000 USD. However if you go for a 36 GHash/s Cube and let it mine for a year you will make 433 USD and they retails around 1 000 USD.

Next I will look at iterating to where we break even atm on a price / Hash.

Then try and see if this can be used for altcoin mining. For example see how far we have come in the exponential growth face of capacity etc.

Hello /BitcoinMining

I hope this isn't an all to stupid question, but would it be possible to use an USB-Miner for parellel computing like Rendering (C4D, CAD), Matlab parpool, Neural Networks (Tensorflow) etc?

Thanks in advance!

submitted by LurkForever to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]
I hope this isn't an all to stupid question, but would it be possible to use an USB-Miner for parellel computing like Rendering (C4D, CAD), Matlab parpool, Neural Networks (Tensorflow) etc?

Thanks in advance!

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